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TimothyC
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 27th, 2010, 8:37 pm
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Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
You're right, V-2 would be equal in cost of 20+ normal ICBMs. And yes, V-1 costs more than a normal RV. And no, it will not be more expensive than all those planes & boomers. But costs really don't matter in this, as there's only 3 of these systems. It's a last laugh weapon, only to be used if all else fails.
So instead of 20 targets you can hit one set of 7. Do you know how many bombers it takes to hit 7 targets? Less than 10. And if you only have three launchers, the unit costs are going to be sky high. ICBMs have an estimated failure rate of around 50%. This means that you MIGHT get 10 targets taken out by the force, even without ABM. With a thin ABM shield you might get 2 or 3 through, and with a thick multi-layered shield, you'll be lucky to get one target killed, and you don't get to pick the target.
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As for GBI, it's a Midcourse Defense ABM. That means it goes after the bus, and that bus will have sensors on it that will detect that EKV's approach and if need be, launch the V-1s to prevent them all from being destroyed.
That Bus is going to be heavy. It's also carrying 7 mini buses, which are going to be even more weight. I'm really questioning if that thing can throw that much into even low orbit.

Take a look at this image of MX warheads coming in, and do some basic extrapolation to figure out where they are discharged, and if you look at open source images of warhead buses you will see that they are released sequentially, not in parallel. You're not going to have time to discharge all 7 V-1s in time You might get a few off, but then I'm going to kill the rest with more GBIs, KEIs, and SM-3s

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Demon Lord Razgriz
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 27th, 2010, 10:04 pm
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TimothyC wrote:
So instead of 20 targets you can hit one set of 7. Do you know how many bombers it takes to hit 7 targets? Less than 10. And if you only have three launchers, the unit costs are going to be sky high. ICBMs have an estimated failure rate of around 50%. This means that you MIGHT get 10 targets taken out by the force, even without ABM. With a thin ABM shield you might get 2 or 3 through, and with a thick multi-layered shield, you'll be lucky to get one target killed, and you don't get to pick the target.
Most ABMs are going after relatively predictable RVs, V-1 maneuvers to throw those off. As for bombers, SAMs & Fighters will kill them before they get near the target.
TimothyC wrote:
That Bus is going to be heavy. It's also carrying 7 mini buses, which are going to be even more weight. I'm really questioning if that thing can throw that much into even low orbit.

Take a look at this image of MX warheads coming in, and do some basic extrapolation to figure out where they are discharged, and if you look at open source images of warhead buses you will see that they are released sequentially, not in parallel. You're not going to have time to discharge all 7 V-1s in time You might get a few off, but then I'm going to kill the rest with more GBIs, KEIs, and SM-3s
The V-2 can get it up in orbit. The First stage is a modified SRB from the Space Shuttle, 2nd stage has a Titan II-class engine with more fuel, and the third stage I'm still working on. So if that ain't enough to get the bus up there, tell me what can.

V-1 aren't released coming down, they're released up in orbit all at the same time outwards from the bus.

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TimothyC
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 28th, 2010, 1:59 am
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Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
Most ABMs are going after relatively predictable RVs, V-1 maneuvers to throw those off.
That is going to be heavy. Very, very heavy, and of only marginal effectiveness
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As for bombers, SAMs & Fighters will kill them before they get near the target.
Nope. A Mach-3+ bomber at 80,000+ feet is very hard to kill. Even before countermeasures (passive and active) come into play the most advanced SAM to date - the Russian S-400 - would only have a pk of .15 . Figure that going down to .03 after ECM and DAMS are used. So 20 SAMs per bomber (for a 50% chance at a kill), only in the time from when you have a lock to when the SAM site is a crater is less than the time needed to volley the missiles up that high, and I can always turn to avoid sites that are not next to targets. I'm going to be able to carry Everything from Skybolt to gravity bombs.
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The V-2 can get it up in orbit. The First stage is a modified SRB from the Space Shuttle, 2nd stage has a Titan II-class engine with more fuel, and the third stage I'm still working on. So if that ain't enough to get the bus up there, tell me what can.
Well With say 7500 kg per V-1 (low-ball) that's 52500 kg for the V-1s. Figure another 20000 kg for the bus, and you're in the 75000 kg bracket. That means you're down to: Ares V. Saturn V, N-1, or Energia. All liquid fueled (and thus can't be kept fueled constantly), all very big. All very 'soft' targets. A good friend of mine, Eric has a name for something like that: IPBM InterPlanetary Ballistic Missile. After talking it over with him, Eric says [T]there is no way you're keeping the launch site for something the size of a Saturn V hard enough to survive an attack from the Galm Team."
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V-1 aren't released coming down, they're released up in orbit all at the same time outwards from the bus.
That's going to be a bitch to configure and keep accurate

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Demon Lord Razgriz
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 28th, 2010, 6:07 am
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TimothyC wrote:
Nope. A Mach-3+ bomber at 80,000+ feet is very hard to kill. Even before countermeasures (passive and active) come into play the most advanced SAM to date - the Russian S-400 - would only have a pk of .15 . Figure that going down to .03 after ECM and DAMS are used. So 20 SAMs per bomber (for a 50% chance at a kill), only in the time from when you have a lock to when the SAM site is a crater is less than the time needed to volley the missiles up that high, and I can always turn to avoid sites that are not next to targets. I'm going to be able to carry Everything from Skybolt to gravity bombs.
MiG-25/31s deal with Mach 3 bombers, that's why the XB-70 got canned.
TimothyC wrote:
Well With say 7500 kg per V-1 (low-ball) that's 52500 kg for the V-1s. Figure another 20000 kg for the bus, and you're in the 75000 kg bracket. That means you're down to: Ares V. Saturn V, N-1, or Energia. All liquid fueled (and thus can't be kept fueled constantly), all very big. All very 'soft' targets. A good friend of mine, Eric has a name for something like that: IPBM InterPlanetary Ballistic Missile. After talking it over with him, Eric says [T]there is no way you're keeping the launch site for something the size of a Saturn V hard enough to survive an attack from the Galm Team."
It is big. I'd say something about the Ace Combat comment, but I'm too damn tired.
TimothyC wrote:
That's going to be a bitch to configure and keep accurate
Why?

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Navybrat85
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 28th, 2010, 6:13 am
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Newton's Third Law, I presume. (Note, I'm the pizza guy, not the engineer...but Newton does seem to be right about the third law.)

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TimothyC
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 28th, 2010, 1:25 pm
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Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
MiG-25/31s deal with Mach 3 bombers, that's why the XB-70 got canned.
Nope. The MiG-25 was designed to combat the B-52 and the B-58. It doesn't have the legs or the speed to intercept the B-70. To get a MiG-25 up to B-70 height and speed you destroy the engines. The MiG-31 is a better proposition, but is still marginal, and you can only make an intercept from head-on due to the kinetics of the situation (it would be very very hard for an AAM to close on a B-70 inside it's range even when launched from the same height and speed). The B-70 got canned because McNamara wanted his Missiles and Kennedy wanted his big army. To quote Stuart Slade:
Stuart wrote:
Quote:
Are you saying the ballance of power ping-pong's between slow and stealthy and high and fast as your opponent optimizes defences (sic) against one or the other? Or just that hypersonic bombers would have been better in the long run from the beginning?
The latter; cancelling (sic) the B-70 was the worst strategic blunder the US made in an era that was studded with catastrophic blunders.
Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
It is big. I'd say something about the Ace Combat comment, but I'm too damn tired.
It's possible to have such a missile in a silo, but you are stuck with liquid fuel. Because you can't keep missiles fueled all the time you've got giant tank farms that are next to impossible to harden. Your missile's response time is going to be measured in hours, or long enough for me to blow the tank farms and keep it from launching.
Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
TimothyC wrote:
That's going to be a bitch to configure and keep accurate
Why?
Because to drop RVs on a target requires a lot of precision. The current method allows for minor adjustments to be made between releases. Your system doesn't, and means that if you have issues with one of the RVs not releasing properly, you can't just skip it and go to the next one, you've potentially screwed up all of the trajectories. So now your super expensive deterrence system is going to have the accuracy of Snark.

Don't think weapons, think systems

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Demon Lord Razgriz
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 28th, 2010, 11:23 pm
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TimothyC wrote:
Nope. The MiG-25 was designed to combat the B-52 and the B-58. It doesn't have the legs or the speed to intercept the B-70. To get a MiG-25 up to B-70 height and speed you destroy the engines. The MiG-31 is a better proposition, but is still marginal, and you can only make an intercept from head-on due to the kinetics of the situation (it would be very very hard for an AAM to close on a B-70 inside it's range even when launched from the same height and speed). The B-70 got canned because McNamara wanted his Missiles and Kennedy wanted his big army. To quote Stuart Slade:
Stuart wrote:
Quote:
Are you saying the ballance of power ping-pong's between slow and stealthy and high and fast as your opponent optimizes defences (sic) against one or the other? Or just that hypersonic bombers would have been better in the long run from the beginning?
The latter; cancelling (sic) the B-70 was the worst strategic blunder the US made in an era that was studded with catastrophic blunders.
<_< Then why does everything I read states that the MiG-25 was designed to deal with the XB-70? As for Slade, I'm not if I have the right guy, but isn't he the one that those in the Defense Reporting field states is insane?

TimothyC wrote:
It's possible to have such a missile in a silo, but you are stuck with liquid fuel. Because you can't keep missiles fueled all the time you've got giant tank farms that are next to impossible to harden. Your missile's response time is going to be measured in hours, or long enough for me to blow the tank farms and keep it from launching.
Storable liquid fuels & underground storage tanks solves the fuel protection problem.

TimothyC wrote:
Because to drop RVs on a target requires a lot of precision. The current method allows for minor adjustments to be made between releases. Your system doesn't, and means that if you have issues with one of the RVs not releasing properly, you can't just skip it and go to the next one, you've potentially screwed up all of the trajectories. So now your super expensive deterrence system is going to have the accuracy of Snark.

Don't think weapons, think systems
And you need to remember that my RV can correct their course themselves as they have engines in them.

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The ed17
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 29th, 2010, 12:50 am
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Belkaland? As in, Belka from the old video game Ace Combat 5? Just curious.

EDIT: seeing as your name is Demon Lord Razgriz, I'm going to assume the answer to my question is yes. :P That was a great game.


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TimothyC
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 29th, 2010, 2:35 am
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Demon Lord Razgriz wrote:
<_< Then why does everything I read states that the MiG-25 was designed to deal with the XB-70?
Because it was the only system that had even a remote shot against a B-70. Important distinction here: When I say 'B-70' I mean the performance specs that would have been achieved by the YB-70A and B-70A. 90% of the data for a 'B-70' out there is for AV-1, the first prototype, which like all prototypes had issues. Until it crashed AV-2 was a much better plane, and came damn close to meeting the B-70A specs. They were even able to solve the tank leakage issue. now clue how they did, but there are no reports of fuel leakage with that plane at all.
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As for Slade, I'm not if I have the right guy, but isn't he the one that those in the Defense Reporting field states is insane?
I'm talking about The last guy on this list.

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Storable liquid fuels & underground storage tanks solves the fuel protection problem.
  1. You don't store liquid fuel missile fueled. I think you know that, but I need to make sure
  2. All of the Rockets that I listed that are in the super heavy size bracket use LOX, and either RP-1 (Kerosene) [Technically Energia used RP-1 in the boosters only, and H2 for the main core] or H2.
  3. #2 means that you need a cryogenic plant on site, and hardened. These sites are getting very very big, very very quickly.
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And you need to remember that my RV can correct their course themselves as they have engines in them.
And Ξ”V is finite. Every m/s you spend on fixing the launch angle is one less to use to avoid my IADS.

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Colosseum
Post subject: Re: BelkalandPosted: July 29th, 2010, 3:03 am
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OK, who is Stuart Slade, and why is he so controversial?

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